NBERCycles—Generates dummies for NBER Cycles

[TomDoan]

@NBERCYCLES generates dummy variables based upon the NBER business cycle reference dates (for the U.S.). Updated 26 Sept 2022 to reflect the peak and trough in early 2020.

Detailed description

[hardmann]

Dear Tom:

I notice the NBER dating table, Which states that the *red highlights indicate when the peak or trough month has been outside the peak or trough quarter. Therefore, the lately Peak month is February 2020, Peak quarter occurred 2019Q4, and Trough is April 2020, thus
Peak to Trough （month）is 2 or Trough Quarter is also 2.
I knowledge it but do not understand it. While ploting, I lost confidency. When we plot quarterly lines with @nbercycle, the contraction span seems 7 quarters. The contraction span of figure of Unemployment rate from NBER' and US real GDP (GDPC1) from FRED both seems 2 months or one quarter.

Best Regard
Hardmann

[TomDoan]

Dear Tom:

I notice the NBER dating table, Which states that the *red highlights indicate when the peak or trough month has been outside the peak or trough quarter. Therefore, the lately Peak month is February 2020, Peak quarter occurred 2019Q4, and Trough is April 2020, thus
Peak to Trough （month）is 2 or Trough Quarter is also 2.

Peak quarter is 2019Q4. The peak month is 2020:2, which is in 2020Q1, not 2019Q4. The troughs are in the same quarter (April 2020 when measured in months, 2020Q2 when measured in quarters), and the two aligning is (by far) the most common situation, but the extreme drop in March 2020 is why they "misalign" (2020Q1 was very weak because of one really bad month).

I knowledge it but do not understand it. While ploting, I lost confidency. When we plot quarterly lines with @nbercycle, the contraction span seems 7 quarters. The contraction span of figure of Unemployment rate from NBER' and US real GDP (GDPC1) from FRED both seems 2 months or one quarter.

Seems to be fine. Are you using the DOWNS option to get the contractions? That looks to be one quarter long.

[hardmann]

cal(q) 1947:1
data(format=fred) / gdpc1
@NBERCycles(down=recession)

graph(key=below,shaded=recession)
# GDPC1