STEPS( options )  equations

# equation forecasts newstart errors   (one per equation, if MODEL option not used)

 

Computes one step ahead (static) forecasts. You can also use it to compute residuals or forecast errors for a model. STEPS takes all of its data from the actual data series at all steps. This contrasts with FORECAST, which (by default) uses the forecasts from the early steps as input for the forecasts for later steps. Thus STEPS does static forecasting as opposed to dynamic forecasting.

 

The FORECAST instruction is more flexible, as it can do dynamic and static forecasts. The UFORECAST instruction (which can also do static and dynamic forecasts) provides a simple alternative for univariate models. The instruction PRJ can compute one-step forecasts for single equation linear models, as those are simply the fitted values from the regression.

 

STEPS has an older syntax, which is still supported, that uses parameters rather than options for several pieces of information. See "Older Syntax" below.

Parameters

Options

MODEL=model to simulate

Of the two ways to input the form of the model to be solved (the other is with supplementary cards), this is the more convenient and is the only way to forecast with a set of FRMLs. MODELs are usually created by GROUP or SYSTEM. If you use this, omit the “equation” supplementary cards.
 

[PRINT]/NOPRINT

Print (display) the forecasts and actuals

 

FROM=starting period of the forecast interval

TO=ending period of the forecast interval

STEPS=number of forecast steps to compute

These determine the periods for which forecasts will be computed. If you have set a SMPL, these default to forecast over that range. Otherwise FROM and TO default to the most recent estimation range. If you want to use something other than the defaults, you can use:

 

• FROM and TO to set the starting and ending periods for the forecasts, or

• FROM and STEPS to set the starting date and number of steps (periods)

 

RESULTS=VECTOR[SERIES] for forecast and errors series

This provides a RECTANGULAR array of SERIES which will be filled with the results. This has two rows. RESULTS=STEPSFORE will make STEPSFORE(1,i) the series of one-step forecasts for the ith equation in the model, and STEPSFORE(2,i) the series of one-step forecast errors.

 

WINDOW="Title of window"

If you use the WINDOW option, a (read-only) spreadsheet window is created with the indicated title and displayed on the screen. This will show the forecasts in columns below the name of the dependent variable.

 

ITERS=iteration limit for solution algorithm [50]

CVCRIT=convergence criterion [.00001]

DAMP=damping factor (1 = no damping) [1]

When simulating a nonlinear model (created by the GROUP instruction and specified by the MODEL option), you can use these three options to control various aspects of the model-solving procedure.

Supplementary Cards  (if MODEL option isn’t used)

There is one supplementary card per equation if you don't use the MODEL option. Note that even if you use supplementary cards for the model, you can still use the RESULTS option for the output information (rather than forecast and errors on the supplementary cards).
 

Variables Defined

Example

steps(model=canmodel,print,results=stepsfore,from=2000:1,to=2009:4)

do i=1,6

   graph(header="Forecasts of "+%modellabel(canmodel,i)) 2

   # stepsfore(1,i)

   # %modeldepvars(canmodel)(i) %fstart %fend

end do i

 

This computes and graphs one-step forecast errors for 2000:1 to 2009:4 for a six variable model. The graphs include both the forecasts and the actual data for comparison. Note that this type of graph is likely to be very uninteresting if plotted over a long time span—the forecast errors are generally quite small compared to the overall.

 

Older Syntax

STEPS( options )  equations  steps   start

# equation forecasts newstart errors   (one per equation, if MODEL option not used)

Deprecated Parameters

 

Copyright © 2025 Thomas A. Doan