Multiplicative Vs. Log-Additive Seasonal Adjustment
Multiplicative Vs. Log-Additive Seasonal Adjustment
Hi,
When I seasonal adjust a particular time series (the Euro-Area 15 real public investmente expressed in households consumption) stumbled upon
a systematic difference (a shift) between the seasonal adjusted series produced using X11 with the multiplicative option Versus usin the log-additive
option (preceded or not by a boxjenk step).
Questions:
(1) Why the difference? (May be it is related to outliers?)
(2) What method is more reliable?
(3) Shouldn't be exactly equivalent the result from seasonal adjust X with MULTIPLICATIVE and LOGADD and seasonal adjust LOG(X) with ADDITIVE????? What explain the differences?
What method is more reliable (in short samples)?
I have read the User's Guide, Reference Manual and X11 Suplement not founding any light about it.
I attach my example (code and data).
Best Regards,
Rodolfo
When I seasonal adjust a particular time series (the Euro-Area 15 real public investmente expressed in households consumption) stumbled upon
a systematic difference (a shift) between the seasonal adjusted series produced using X11 with the multiplicative option Versus usin the log-additive
option (preceded or not by a boxjenk step).
Questions:
(1) Why the difference? (May be it is related to outliers?)
(2) What method is more reliable?
(3) Shouldn't be exactly equivalent the result from seasonal adjust X with MULTIPLICATIVE and LOGADD and seasonal adjust LOG(X) with ADDITIVE????? What explain the differences?
What method is more reliable (in short samples)?
I have read the User's Guide, Reference Manual and X11 Suplement not founding any light about it.
I attach my example (code and data).
Best Regards,
Rodolfo
- Attachments
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- SeasAdj_EA15PUBINV.RPF
- code
- (798 Bytes) Downloaded 1278 times
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- EA15PUBINV.rat
- data
- (1 KiB) Downloaded 1241 times
"What we cannot speak of we must pass over in silence." Wittgenstein
Re: Multiplicative Vs. Log-Additive Seasonal Adjustment
At least in the U.S., it appears that most series which were multiplicatively adjusted in X11 are now log additively adjusted in X12.
The log additive decomposition has log X = log C + log S + log I, while the multiplicative has X=C x S x I. The first step is to estimate C. In the log additive model, that is done by taking a moving average of log C, which is subtracted from log X to get the preliminary estimate of log S + log I. In the multiplicative model, that is done by taking a moving average of C itself, which is then divided into X to get the preliminary estimation of S x I. The mean of the log is systematically different than the log of the mean which will carry through to the rest of the analysis.
The log additive decomposition has log X = log C + log S + log I, while the multiplicative has X=C x S x I. The first step is to estimate C. In the log additive model, that is done by taking a moving average of log C, which is subtracted from log X to get the preliminary estimate of log S + log I. In the multiplicative model, that is done by taking a moving average of C itself, which is then divided into X to get the preliminary estimation of S x I. The mean of the log is systematically different than the log of the mean which will carry through to the rest of the analysis.
Re: Multiplicative Vs. Log-Additive Seasonal Adjustment
crystal clear !! thank you very much !
"What we cannot speak of we must pass over in silence." Wittgenstein